Kamala Harris’ coalition cracks on the eve of early voting in Arizona

With early voting beginning Wednesday, Grand Canyon State voters appear ready to elect Donald Trump president again after electing Joe Biden by barely 10,000 votes in 2020, as new polls show. Key demographics are moving away from Kamala Harris.

Trump leads the Vice President in both multi-candidate ballot testing (49% to 47%, with 3% undecided and 1% supporting Jill Stein) and head-to-head (50% to 48%) in 11 decisive electoral races. According to an AARP poll released Tuesday, votes in the battleground states on the southern border,

The survey of 1,358 likely voters was conducted from September 24 to October 1 by a pair of bipartisan pollsters: Republican Fabrizio Ward and Democratic Impact Research.

Voters age 50 and older are key here, with Trump leading 52% to 45% in a multi-candidate test, with pollster Bob Ward calling him a “clear edge” with the demographic. Ward said Trump also leads by 3 points with women over 50.

And Trump trails Harris by only 4 points with voters under 50 (45% to 49% for the Democrat).

The former president is particularly strong with 50- to 64-year-olds, 55% to 41% for Harris. She’s up 11 points with men and 12 points with men over 50. Whites over 50 lag Trump by 14 points.

Jeff Liszt of Impact Research said in a press call Tuesday that older people make up 55% of the electorate and are more motivated to participate in the process than younger people, meaning they are more at stake in the state. Are the most propensity voters.

As in many polls, Trump dominates voters without a college degree, leading Harris 56% to 40%.

However, Senate candidate Kari Lake has not benefited from these trends, with Representative Ruben Gallego leading overall, 51% to 44%, and among the same groups that could lead Trump to victory.

According to Ward, voters 50 and older are split between the two at 48%, with a “net shift in favor of Gallego”; Independent voters are driving the action.

Lake leads by only 2 points among male voters, 8 points among men 50 and older, 4 points among whites, 7 points among whites 50 and older and those who did not graduate from college. The middle has a lead of 6 points.

The Trump coalition is not sold on their trust, and this is reflected in the lower numbers than Trump among Republicans, independents and older swing voters.

While Trump has 92% of GOP registrants, 47% of independents and 45% of swing voters over the age of 50 (Harris is at 36% with the same subgroup), Lake has 85% of Republicans, 38% of independents and just 24% of swing voters. Pulls. Voters above 50 years of age.

Gallego leads by 17 points with indies and by 30 points with older swing voters.

A second poll released this week shows Trump is building a stronger firewall with Latino men under 50 — a group key to Harris’ apparently declining hopes.

The USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found the former president up 12 points with voters under the age of 35 (51% to 39%) and up 20 points among Hispanic men between the ages of 35 and 49 (57% to 37%). is shown.

A similar situation was found in Nevada, which is part of its two-state sample, with Trump leading by 53% to 40% among Latino men under 35 and by 53% among Latino men between the ages of 35 and 49. An increase of 39%.