The combination of the remnants of Hurricane Beryl and a passing frontal boundary will result in a dual severe weather risk for the Northeast, bringing a rare tornado threat along with the chance of significant flooding through at least Thursday morning.
Some strong showers and thunderstorms have already started to impact the region but are expected to increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day Wednesday.
Throughout its journey across the eastern U.S., Beryl has already posed a prolific tornado threat. Monday witnessed the highest number of Tornado Warnings ever issued on a single day in July, totaling 118. On Tuesday, several tornadoes were spotted in the Ohio Valley. Now, the threat heads into the Northeast on Wednesday.
Across parts of central New York, the tornado threat is its highest in nearly 20 years as Beryl’s remnants move into an area ripe with wind shear and atmospheric instability Wednesday afternoon.
“That should say something that should grab your attention,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera said. “Watch for those supercells to develop this afternoon. You want to make sure that you’ve got a safe spot to go to.”
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has since issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Upstate New York, northern and central Pennsylvania and Vermont until 9 p.m. ET. Along with the tornado threat comes the possibility of scattered damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also effective until 10 p.m. ET for portions of the District Of Columbia, Maryland, southern Pennsylvania, Virginia and far eastern West Virginia.
“The greatest tornado threat will likely be within an east-to-west corridor from just southeast of Buffalo to just west of Albany,” SPC forecasters wrote Wednesday morning.
The worst weather is expected from mid-afternoon into the evening.
Beryl to bring heavy rains to areas devastated by 2023 floods
Much of the Northeast and New England is at risk of heavy rains and flooding.
“The energy is derived from the southwest. It impacted the Ohio Valley region overnight, went through the Great Lakes, and gained lake enhancement as it sweeps through the afternoon…It could reach two to potentially three inches per hour,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Steve Bender said.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has highlighted parts of New York, Vermont and New Hampshire as being at least at moderate risk for flooding – a risk that could increase if thunderstorms train over the same area. Included in the highest threat zone are the communities of Burlington and Montpelier in Vermont and Plattsburg, New York.
The event is reminiscent, to a degree, of flooding that overtook the region around a year ago when the NWS issued the region’s first-ever Flash Flood Emergency.
Many communities in Vermont saw between 5 and 10 inches of rainfall, helped in part by orographic lift.
This meteorological phenomenon occurs when warm air is forced to rise over a mountain range but cools and condenses as it lifts. This leads to the formation of clouds and rainfall, which can be quite heavy and unpredictable.
Forecast models show some communities could see at least 3 inches of rainfall, with the potential for greater amounts, especially in communities on the westward sides of mountains.
NWS meteorologists note the event is not expected to be as widespread as the 2023 disaster, but all residents living in flood-prone areas should be ready to seek higher ground.
Due to the threat, Flood Watches have been issued across four states through at least Thursday morning.
The threat of widespread heavy rain and storms is expected to end Thursday as most of the storm system’s energy moves away from the region.
Damage reported in western New York
Homes and trees were reported to be damaged in western New York, as thunderstorms raced from west to east across the region.
New York State Troopers said they were assisting residents with storm damage in Chautauqua and Erie counties.
More than 10,000 power outages were reported in the immediate region, with nearly 50,000 outages reported in the Northeast.
Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said the town of Eden was placed under a state of emergency due to widespread damage.
“Significant damage has been incurred at a number of farms, especially barns which are a total loss, and animals are injured. Thankfully there are no reports of human injuries,” Poloncarz posted on social media.
