Uncertainty is a blessing for Wall Street as America’s future hangs in the balance with this upcoming election

It’s a jump ball.

At least that’s what the Wall Street research is saying as the dust settles on the new Democratic presidential ticket headed by a youngish, sentient human being named ­Kamala Harris, who is challenging the GOP’s Trump-Vance team.

It’s anyone’s game, big banks are warning their clients, citing tightening polls, but also interviews with their contacts in both political parties. Democrats coalesced around Harris’ candidacy and lots of money is flowing into the campaign in the aftermath of Joe Biden dropping out of the race. Donald Trump needs to come up with a new game plan on the fly.

The tightening race has broader implications, Wall Street researchers are saying. With the baggage of Sleepy Joe Biden thrown to the side, down-ballot Dems have a chance to win. The Senate may still go GOP because there are more open seats in reddish states. But the House could turn blue because Biden isn’t dragging down the ticket. That means even if Trump is elected, parts of his agenda involving the economy like lower taxes could get nixed.

Yet, as the future of the country hangs in the balance, all the uncertainty is a godsend for Wall Street. What we have is a traders’ paradise given the public policy implications of who runs DC and the candidates’ starkly different approaches to the economy. That’s why there’s been such a glut of research published.

Investors are demanding insights as they pile into trades that they think will benefit a Trump victory or a Harris win, my Wall Street sources say. At 30,000 feet, a Trump win favors stocks that benefit from GOP economic policies, particularly those that don’t need congressional approval, like deregulation. Think financials and fracking companies. 

Harris, given her lefty street cred, is great for anything that benefits from the green economy.

Or as one veteran capital-markets person told me: “The election is the Number 1 macro event in the market today because everything is so confusing and means there could be a lot of money to be made being right.”

No consensus

A research note published by JPMorgan this past week underscores the volatility. The Harris candidacy “does open back up that very distinct possibility that we could see Democrats regain control of the House and takes away from what seemed to be a view that there was going to be a Republican sweep.” 

Still, the geniuses at the nation’s biggest bank tell us that the consensus is there’s no consensus. Many observers see the results “coming down to the wire. We might not know on Election Day.”

One of the problems with game-planning the election is the two wild cards at the top of the ticket. Trump had a chance to unite the country during his GOP convention speech, which he did at first, before meandering for nearly an hour into grievances and weird digressions. It was a lost opportunity to attract independents, researchers say.

Kamala Harris is, well, Kamala Harris. She’s sharper than Biden (I know it’s a low bar) so that the presidential dementia issue is off the table.

But there are a lot of doubts about her. On top of her weak record as VP (yes, she was a disastrous border czar no matter how much the MSM tells you other­wise), she inherits Biden’s lousy record on inflation, etc. It’s only a matter of time before she tries to ­elevate her speech into gibberish.

Maybe that’s why the betting odds — a different measure that surveys bookmakers’ views on the election — still have Trump ahead.

But the bookies also had Hillary Clinton as the favorite right up until it looked like Trump could pull an upset in 2016.

So I’m placing my bets on the Wall Street research, which began touting Biden dropping out of the race in June. Analysts are now calling the race basically a dead heat. 

Dan Clifton of Strategas draws on Harris’ uneven record to give Trump an edge — but only slight. As Clifton puts it: “Harris benefits from having the Biden campaign infrastructure, but selecting a VP, crafting a message more consistent with her views and allocating scarce resources is not easy in a short time frame . . . Trump is the favorite but by a tighter margin than last week.”

Others I speak to also see a slight Trump advantage with caveats. Recall: The muted Dem response to Trump’s scattershot convention speech. 

“They didn’t have a functioning campaign because if they did, they would have put out a barrage of ads featuring clips of the verbal landfill of a speech Trump gave that night,” said one Wall Street government-affairs executive. “With Biden out, donors will come back so she has a chance.” 

A united Democratic Party certainly boosts Harris’ cause.

At last count since elevating Harris to the top of the ticket, the campaign has pulled in more than $120 million compared to close to zero in the days before Biden’s withdrawal.

But it might not be enough, the people at Meridian Research point out.

Harris “will face a challenge that doesn’t exist with other potential Trump opponents — that she is representative of the Biden policy on the economy and immigration — the two top issues of concern to voters, on which Trump has a significant lead.”

Start rolling the dice.