Donald Trump hasn’t had success in general elections in swing-state Virginia.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated him by more than 5 points. And four years later, Joe Biden won the state by more than 10.
But new polling from Virginia Commonwealth University shows the third time might be the charm for the Republican presidential nominee.
In a survey of 809 adults, Trump holds a marginal lead over Biden — 39% to 36%. Though that spread is inside the +/- 4.8% margin of error, Distinguished Professor (and former Gov.) L. Douglas Wilder says the findings show the Old Dominion State is up for grabs — and suggests a collapse in black support for the president is a big reason.
“I think the results show that Virginia is truly a ‘battleground state’ for the presidency. The drop by 20 points (to 46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in particular in competitive districts 7 and 2,” Wilder said Tuesday, contextualizing the poll.
With neither major-party candidate topping 40%, third-party and independent candidates are exploiting the vacuum. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is at 9% (and leads with independent voters, taking 27% support), while Jill Stein has 2% support, and Cornel West sits at 1%.
The survey, conducted between June 24 and July 3, would have included some sampling after the first presidential debate and Biden’s heavily scrutinized performance but would not have encompassed two seismic events in the race — the Saturday assassination attempt on Trump and the Monday pick of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio as vice presidential nominee.
Despite not including those critical moments, the survey shows a 6-point swing to Trump. In January’s survey, Biden led, 42% to 39%.
The poll data suggest Virginians are experiencing Biden fatigue — his 36% level of support matches his approval rating there. A gender gap exists in Biden approval also, with 40% of women but only 32% of men happy with the job he’s done.
Democrats seem to be souring on their president as well, with just 69% approving of Biden and 25% disapproving — a trend that could have downballot implications for Virginia Democrats.
Though intraparty attrition has to be a concern for the president’s re-election campaign, his numbers with independents are arguably more of a worry. Just one in five indy voters approves of Biden. He’s now at 68% disapproval with unaligned voters, nearly doubling the 37% he was at last time VCU was in the field.
Pollsters also tracked related questions, including how voters feel about Trump’s 34-count felony conviction for falsifying business records in the “hush money” case.
The lawfare galvanized Republican support for Trump, with more than 60% of GOP voters saying they’re more likely to vote for the former president, while only 4% of Democrats make a similar claim. Among independents, 25% are more likely to vote for Trump, while 45% say they are less likely.
That could be baked into the cake before Election Day, given the pace of this campaign season’s news cycle, but it’s worth watching nonetheless.
Another concern for Republicans is downballot, where it appears Trump’s polling bump isn’t translating to the Senate race.
Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican nominee Hung Cao, 49% to 38%.
AFP via Getty Images
Meanwhile, President Biden isn’t the only politician Virginians are looking at more critically. Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who was talked up in some quarters as a potential Trump running mate, is now down to 50% approval — though he is still +16 overall.
His approval is down 4 points and his disapproval is up 3 since the previous poll, suggesting those who believed Youngkin could help Trump in Virginia may have been off-base.
Of course, if the topline is to be believed, Trump may not need much help in the state after all.
