DETROIT — The contest for a Michigan House seat once held by the late, longtime Congressional Black Caucus co-founder John Conyers pits two unexpected characters against each other — and black Republicans in the race told The Post it highlights a threat to Donald Trump.
In the blue corner is Democratic Rep. Sri Thanedar, a 69-year-old Indian-American who represents America’s blackest big city in Congress.
In the red corner is Martell Bivings, a 37-year-old black Republican who is hoping for an unexpected victory this November.
The existence of a candidate like Bivings is most unusual in deep-blue Detroit, where no Republican has held elected office since Keith Butler served on the Detroit City Council in the 1990s. According to Open Secrets, Bivings has raised less than $24,000 so far and has about $11,000 in the bank.
Thanedar rose to prominence during the 2018 Democratic primary race for governor, when he ran against Gretchen Whitmer, who won both the primary and the office.
But Thanedar garnered more votes than Whitmer in Detroit. She has since won her last two races, first for the Michigan House, then for Congress.
In addition to his boyband hairstyle, which has led to speculation that he wears a toupee, Sho is known for burying his opponents in cash. The businessman and scientist wrote a $5 million check to his campaign for winning the 2022 House race.
As of last report, Thanedar has raised $7 million for this year’s contest and still has $4.8 million in the bank.
Aside from the goliath Thanedar, who easily defeated Detroit Councilwoman Mary Waters in his primary, Bivings faces another obstacle: a lack of confidence among Republicans that it’s worth investing in his race.
The 2024 election is a rematch of the 2022 race, which Thanedar won by 71% to 24%, a margin of 110,000 votes.
As Bivings said at a recent fundraiser in suburban Detroit: “I’m not going to be a threat until 8 p.m. on election night.”
Republicans see it that way, too.
A source familiar with national Republicans’ thinking told The Post that the National Republican Congressional Committee will target about 37 races this year.
There are four contests in Michigan – Paul Hudson vs. incumbent Hilary Scholten in West Michigan; incumbent John James against Carl Marlinga in Macomb County; Tom Barrett against Curtis Hertel in the Lansing area for the seat vacated by Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin; and Paul Junge against state Senator Kristen MacDonald Rivett. The last, Flint-area seat, has been held by the same family, the Kildees, since the late 1970s – first by Dale, then by his nephew Dan, who is not running for re-election.
David vs. Goliath — rather, Bivings vs. Thanedar — does not meet the NRCC's criteria, the source said. Republicans want to invest in races with 4-point margins or less. Not invest in an impossible dream.
Another source, a Republican consultant, told The Post that Bivings needed to make a “business case” for more help from the party.
“If he can say, 'I'm going to give Donald Trump a 3 in Detroit,' that could be worth it,” the source said.
The candidate told the Post that national thinking does not take local sentiment into account.
“My qualitative estimates tell me that the poorer the neighborhood, the more likely it is to vote Republican,” Bivings said. “Nobody is living in poverty.”
That estimate has found few takers in the donor category. Bivings said he has five-figure donors with a history who have written $200 checks.
Bivings has heard optimistic talk among Republicans that Donald Trump could pull in 20% of the black male vote in cities like Detroit. Don't count on it, he warns.
“I know those black people. I'm related to those black people,” Bivings said. “They won't go to the polling stations. They'll say 'I can't go to the polling stations; was election day last week?'”
