Donald Trump shows strength in the upper Midwest – which Kamala Harris needs to win

New polling from Michigan and Wisconsin offers good news for Donald Trump in two states Kamala Harris must win to have a chance at the White House.

Trafalgar Group Survey michigan And the Republican presidential candidate in Wisconsin is shown to have a slight lead over the Democratic vice president.

In the Wolverine State, where 1,086 likely voters were polled between September 28 and 30, Trump leads Harris 47% to 45% with rounding, with 5% undecided and 4% supporting another candidate.

What makes Trump’s lead particularly notable in this battle of 15 electoral votes is a D+4 poll.

Given the generally strong Democratic performance in the state, one theory for Harris’ lag in Michigan is that the Biden administration’s policy on the Israeli war in Gaza is a Nonstarter for MuslimsPolling has shown Green Party candidate Jill Stein as a spoiler among that demographic, and those who have not yet committed to any of the major candidates may lean toward the Greens.

The Democratic gloom extends downballot, according to Trafalgar. Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers are tied in the Senate race with 47% each.

Trafalgar’s survey of 1,086 likely voters in Wisconsin was also conducted between September 28 and 30, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag for Republicans, showing that some Trumpers aren’t sold on Senate candidate Eric Hovde.

While the former president leads Harris in the race for 10 electoral votes, 47% to 46%, with 4% undecided and 3% exploring other options (again, according to the absolute numbers), Senator Tammy Baldwin is on track for the next six years. Are on. In DC, according to pollsters.

The Democratic incumbent leads the GOP businessman 48% to 46%, with 6% undecided in the survey which is evenly distributed between Republicans and Democrats.

A second Wisconsin poll released Wednesday is more favorable to Democrats.

The Marquette University Law School poll shows Harris leads 49% to 44% in the multi-candidate race among likely voters, according to Robert F. Kennedy has the support of 3%.

The poll is trending rapidly in favor of Harris, who trailed Trump by 1 point when entering the race, then saw her lead increase to 4 points in subsequent surveys.

Harris has 99% support in what election director Charles Franklin told Wisconsin reporters is a “remarkably unified party,” leading pollsters to wonder whether they are “overestimating” Democratic loyalty. Are. Independents are also moving toward Harris by more than 60%, according to Marquette.

Trump has the support of 94% of Republicans, but not enough in Marquette’s estimate.

GOP disappointment turns to predictions: 50% of Wisconsin voters think Harris is more likely to win than Trump, while only 39% see Trump returning to the White House.

Hovde is at a 7-point margin and trails Baldwin 53% to 46%, reflecting a change in Marquette’s calculations when 10% of undecided voters are forced to choose. Without that mandatory option, Hovde trails by just 5 points.

With third-party candidates in the mix, Baldwin leads by 6 points in what pollsters call a “consistent slight lead.”

Franklin says Baldwin is “consolidating” the Democratic vote and has more than 60% support among independents.

Marquette surveyed 798 likely voters in the Badger State between September 18 and 26, with a margin of error of +/–4.4%.