Even Governor Josh Shapiro couldn’t save Pennsylvania for Democrats

Polls often tell you less about the winners than about the losers. As the saying goes, victory has many fathers, but defeat tells you what really went wrong.

Pennsylvania’s 2024 results Offer a master class in Democratic collapse: While Trump trailed Kamala Harris by 2 points in the presidential race, Republicans won every statewide contest.

Dave McCormick wins close victory Three-time senator Bob CaseyDave Sunday defeats Eugene DePasquale by 5 points in the Attorney General race; And incumbent Tim DeFoor defeated Malcolm Kenyatta for Auditor General by an even larger margin.

The story of how Democrats failed Pennsylvania begins to unfold in the final weeks of the campaign. Trump’s operation hits working-class neighborhoods simple, direct message: “Trump: Secure Borders/Kamala: Open Borders,” “Trump: Low Inflation/Harris: High Inflation.”

His team’s “Kamala is for him/her” ad sparked legal threats, but achieved its intended effect – Democrats are concerned about boutique issues rather than kitchen-table concerns like inflation. Meanwhile, Harris released a series of cleverly constructed but culturally tone-deaf advertising An attempt to depict the life of the working class of Pennsylvania.

Harris’s response proved significant. His team launched what they considered their surprise in October: a series of joint presentations with Unpopular former Republican Liz Cheney “Focus on”saving democracyThe rallies, held primarily in affluent suburban areas, were emblematic of the campaign’s fundamental misreading of the state’s political geography.

His campaign’s last notable attempt at working-class authenticity – an ad that featured a supposedly working-class local man who looked like an actor playing Trump’s “boy with the little silver spoon” focus -was giving group lines – landed with my working class relatives. Plus vegan bulgogi tacos at Union Hall.

This messaging disconnect infected every Democratic campaign. DePasquale, running for Attorney General, relied heavily on his record as a fiscal watchdog and government reformer – but not as a prosecutor, as he had never been a prosecutor. It was a compelling pitch in theory, but it was weakened by Sunday’s relentless efforts by a career prosecutor focus Fentanyl seizures and crime rates decline in York County. While DePasquale talked about process and oversight, the Sunday team circulated bodycam footage of drug busts and arrests on social media.

Kenyatta’s Auditor General campaign highlighted the party’s deeper problems. The 34-year-old progressive rising star, known primarily for viral speeches and a failed Senate bid, campaigned on turning the office into a vehicle for social change — which made sense when one realized he was destined for this role. I had no experience. against Outgoing DeFoor’s straightforward non-partisan message Kenyatta’s ambitious agenda on waste reduction and taxpayer protection reads like a DEI solution in search of a problem.

Even Casey, who built his career on careful moderation and labor support, could not get enough votes to secure a fourth term in office. After decades of positioning himself as a blue-collar, blue-dog Democrat, Casey’s recent selective embrace of progressive causes provided perfect fodder for him. McCormick’s advertising team,

While Republican ads touted Casey’s voting record and association with flip-flopping presidential candidate Harris, his campaign responded with a barrage of increasingly desperate fundraising emails, each predicting impending doom. The horribly off-key messaging – subject lines included “Disaster to avoid” and “worst news yet” – became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Who wants to vote for a loser?

The results highlight the bankruptcy of the Democrats’ coalition-building strategy. Harris’ team believed they could unite urban progressives and anti-Trump suburbanites while capturing enough working-class voters through careful messaging and strategic positioning. Instead, he accomplished a rare political feat: talking to absolutely no one.

Governor Josh Shapiro, who has emerged as Harris’s potential running mate, embodies these contradictions. His “Get Sh*t Done” gubernatorial slogan promised practical results but delivered historic inaction, because The Commonwealth Foundation has reported – Only 111 bills were signed in 18 months, the fewest signed by any Pennsylvania governor in 50 years. For comparison, Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin pushed 1,654 bills over the same period with a part-time (and divided) legislature.

Its implications extend beyond an election cycle. Despite this gradually decreasing populationPennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes and competitive Senate seats make it essential to any future Democratic coalition.

Yet Tuesday’s results show that the party has lost its ability to communicate effectively with voters outside Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The state office margin – larger than the presidential margin – suggests deeper problems than the shortcomings of any individual candidate.

As they have since 2016, Democrats continued trying to thread an impossible needle: appease progressives with substance-free identity politics, while simultaneously wooing suburban Republicans and their lack of real working-class policy proposals. Maintaining the working-class base.

The result was messaging so carefully calibrated that it became meaningless, immaterial in every way Kamala Harris’ final cameo appearance on SNL,

Unless Democrats can craft a message that resonates beyond their urban strongholds — and find experienced, competent candidates who are capable of delivering said message, without having to explain steel manufacturing to career steelworkers like McKinsey consultants — Tuesday The results may indicate a permanent realignment in a state they once considered winnable.

Here in the Keystone State, as elsewhere in the country, the party’s obsession with building the perfect alliance has left them with hardly any alliance.

Oliver Bateman is a historian and journalist based in Pittsburgh. He blogs, vlogs, and podcasts on his Substack, Oliver Bateman Does the Work.

Reprinted with permission RealClearPennsylvania,