Millions of people along the Gulf Coast are being urged to prepare as the next tropical threat to the United States is brewing in the Caribbean, and there are growing signs that the elements needed for a tropical storm or hurricane are gathering.
Several computer forecast models are predicting a powerful tropical storm or hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of this week, but there remains much uncertainty in the forecast, and a variety of possible outcomes.
The system threatening the Gulf Coast has now been designated Invest 97L, a naming convention that allows the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to run special computer models that help forecasters gain additional information about tropical disturbances being monitored for development.
The potential for Invest 97L to develop continues to increase, and the NHC says there is a high potential for tropical development over the next seven days from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC says a broad area of low pressure is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Central America.
“Environmental conditions appear favorable for this system to develop, and it is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next few days as it moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico,” the NHC said in its latest tropical weather forecast.
According to the NHC, this system is likely to bring heavy rainfall to parts of Central America for the next several days.
The northwestern Caribbean region, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of the system, the NHC said.
The storm is expected to move northward over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and communities along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also remain on alert, the NHC said.
Where might a tropical disturbance go in the Gulf of Mexico?
“How powerful the storm will be and where the most intense impacts will occur remain open questions,” wrote Fox Weather hurricane specialist Brian Norcross. “There is consensus among various computer forecasts on how the steering pattern will develop, but it is the details that make the difference between whether a storm will make landfall in one location or another location hundreds of miles away.”
By Monday, the chance of Invest 97L developing will continue to increase, and it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the western Caribbean by Tuesday.
Norcross said hurricane warnings could then be issued for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast, and we could be tracking Tropical Storm Helene until midweek.
On Thursday or Thursday night, the storm, whether it's a tropical storm or Hurricane Helene, could hit anywhere between Louisiana and Florida.
“Residents on or near the coast between Louisiana and Florida should stay well informed,” Norcross added. “This will be a rapidly evolving situation, so now is the time to think about what you will do in potentially affected areas if a significant storm comes your way later in the week.”
By Friday, the storm will begin to weaken as it moves southeast. However, it will continue to bring heavy rain and strong winds along its path.
Building a weather puzzle
The pieces of this complex weather puzzle are slowly coming together. This includes a weather pattern known as the Central American Gyre.
A gyre is a diffuse low pressure area that is nourished by moisture from the Pacific Ocean and forms near or over Central America.
It is essentially a storm that produces heavy rainfall, with effects extending over hundreds of miles, and has posed the threat of torrential rains, flooding and landslides in more than a dozen countries in and around Central America.
However, organized low-pressure centers can develop into tropical storms or even hurricanes within the larger gyre if water temperatures and upper-level winds become favorable for tropical development. Current water temperatures in the Caribbean are close to record-warm levels recorded last season.
The ultimate fate of tropical development will depend on the location of the gyre, its strength, and the atmospheric steering – or blocking – patterns that occur over South America.
