Energy analysts estimated that Re-election of former President Trump Despite concerns that geopolitical tensions could lead to a potential surge in prices, oil companies could get a potential boost.
Patrick de Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, posted on X Trump’s re-election is “net” [positive]For oil companies, as the energy sector is hoping to roll back tighter regulations.
But he also said it “could be bad for prices” if Trump gets tougher on Iran or imposes more sanctions.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group and Fox Business contributor, said Iran is exporting about 1.7 million barrels a day, and If Trump imposes sanctions On those barrels, it’s a “must do.” [be] It is made somewhere.”
OPEC could help with production but if not, it will be up to the U.S. to fill that void, Flynn said.
“The lack of new leases and inflation have made it difficult for American oil and gas to fill that void,” he said.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US refining capacity peaked in 2020, then declined in 2021 and 2022.
While capacity increased in 2023 and 2024, it has not returned to pre-pandemic levels.
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For example, refining capacity in 2020 was 18.98 million barrels per calendar day.
In 2024 this figure is approximately 18.38 million barrels per calendar day.
The EIA said Phillips 66 shut down its petroleum refining operations at a facility in February, although this has not yet been reflected in annual data.
“With global supply well below average, the loss of Iranian barrels could push prices higher and widen the global supply deficit.” Flynn added.
Still, both analysts predict lower prices are ahead.
while de han Don’t trust Trump’s promises While cutting energy prices in half is “realistic,” he estimates prices will remain around $3 a gallon through the summer, before falling below $3 a gallon at the end of the year.
“This seems to be the new norm. Trump could choose to simplify gasoline standards, De Haan wrote, which could help lower prices in the long run.
The current average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.12, down from $3.42 reported a year ago.
Flynn warned that geopolitical risk factors could result in higher prices, but the surging US dollar and expectations that the US will ramp up drilling are “slowing down energy costs almost immediately.”
