Is Florida in play? Or is this fool’s gold for the Democrats?

Throughout this election, the prevailing perception has been that there are seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Campaigns, political parties, super PACs and the like have spent millions of dollars in these swing states and have been rewarded with overwhelming numbers of polls that show the race there is very close.

But has he ignored other potential battlegrounds in the battle for 88 electoral votes?

Ellie McKeon-Dawson, one of polling guru Nate Silver’s lieutenants, logic This is likely the case, saying that their “model thinks Florida is the 7th most likely decisive state – ahead of states like Nevada where the race is much more even but the number of electoral votes is lower.”

In fact, Florida has 30 electoral votes – five times more than Nevada and more than any single state that conventional wisdom considers a battleground.

And there are structural signs that both Republicans and Democrats believe the fight for the Sunshine State could be a dogfight, despite Republicans having more of a lead than Democrats following party switching due to the pandemic and an influx of COVID refugees. There are over one million active registered voters.

For starters, on Friday former President Barack Obama, who held the state in 2008 and 2012, supported Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is running against former governor Senator Rick Scott.

The RealClearPolitics polling average shows a margin of 4.3 points in favor of the incumbent.

Support of Obama, who is promoting Kamala Harris’ campaign under the stretchA sign that national Democrats, historically reluctant to get involved in one of the few states where the 2022 “red wave” unfolded as advertised, may finally be at play in Florida.

Of course, the Senate race isn’t the main event, and it’s still an open question whether Harris or Tim Walz campaigns in the state, given that they’ve only sent out surrogates so far — especially according to RealClearPolitics’ surveys. In the average, Trump is ahead by 6. ,

The McKeown–Dawson analysis recognizes the long-term nature of the state, noting that Trump has already won it twice and “the once quintessential swing state is no longer there.” But while he raises the seemingly rhetorical question of whether Florida is “a lost cause for Harris that is not worth the investment of her campaign’s limited resources,” he says the answer “is not so simple. ,” even though their model gives Harris a 21% chance of winning.

First, the Silver model sees Harris/Trump as a 3.3-point race – which would put it on par with the Biden/Trump result in 2020. The analysis also noted some individual surveys, though not “particularly high-quality” ones, put the race as close as 1 or 2 points.

Political professionals differ along partisan lines on how close Florida actually is.

While the Democratic Party did not object when asked, GOP Chairman Evan Power rejected The idea that the state is a battleground as “fool’s gold” came to light during a recent interview, and he expanded on those points in The Post.

“Florida is a safe R state,” he said. Florida Chamber And Associated Industries of FloridaThose favorable to GOP candidates are “much more reliable than some of the public polls that have always underestimated Trump and Scott.”

“The fact is that we have registered more Republicans, and when we get them out it will lead to wins up and down the ballot in Florida,” Powers said.

A source familiar with the thinking of the Mucarsel-Powell campaign believes voters may split their tickets between Trump and the Democratic Senate candidate, particularly among Latino voters.

They feel Scott doesn’t take them seriously, as evidenced by running fewer ads against Bill Nelson this cycle than in 2018. And he believes the race is as close as possible according to public polling, which is believed to be more reflective of 2020-presidential-cycle voting models than a 2022 wave election.

Scott’s campaign takes a different stance, claiming that the race is not particularly close and that they have heard this line before from the opposing party.

“Every election, Florida Democrats say Rick Scott is in trouble, and every election they lose. But national Democrats are free to waste their money if they want. Given his lack of investment at the end of this cycle, it seems he doesn’t have much confidence in Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s faltering campaign. We have taken this race seriously from the beginning,” a spokesperson told The Post.

Despite the partisan framing, the reality is this: National campaigns may want to ignore Florida and continue spending money chasing the declining number of undecided voters in the battleground state.

But this may put them in danger.

Democrats probably need to compete again, if only to show they can do it.

And if Republicans somehow lose a Senate seat or the state’s 30 electoral votes, it will be a lesson in how to squander a political advantage that once seemed impenetrable.