Is it a case of Kamala-mentum?
That’s the question raised by new presidential polling from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and YouGov.
The last time the pollsters were in the field in January, former President Donald Trump led President Biden 43% to 39% when “leaners” were factored in.
In that survey, Robert Kennedy Jr. had 9% support.
Yet during a new survey conducted July 29 to August 1, Trump is behind replacement candidate Vice President Kamala Harris 46% to 43%, with Kennedy down to 6%.
When Kennedy voters were asked to choose between the top two candidates, more of them said they would vote for Trump than for Harris, 29% to 26%, with 45% saying they wouldn’t vote at all.
That narrows the margins since January’s poll, when the same prompt was given to RFK voters about Trump and Biden. Back then, Trump received support from 33% of the RFK voters while Biden took only 23%.
But RFK voters leaning toward Trump aren’t enough to offset Democratic gains elsewhere in a D+4 poll that sampled 42% Democrats, 38% Republicans, and 20% independents.
The data indicate Harris’ choice of running mate could give her a boost. Expected Tuesday, the announcement will be a kickoff of her campaign’s battleground-states tour.
Roughly half of respondents believe the selection should be a male and about the same amount said he should hail from a swing state.
That checks the boxes for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, two Democrats in the running — and seen as top favorites — as of Monday evening.
Among Democrats, 14% want Kelly and 12% prefer Shapiro. Kelly has a slight edge among independents at 7%, with Shapiro and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg not far behind at 5%.
The polling points to the former president’s polarization, with 75% of Trump backers saying his accomplishments drive their support and 48% citing Trump’s ability to “save America” as a key point in his favor.
Conversely, 66% of those not voting for Trump say he’s a “threat to America,” with 48% of them also blaming Trump for the “Jan. 6 insurrection.”
Harris supporters, meanwhile, see her campaign in aspirational terms, with 66% believing the 59-year-old former prosecutor and senator represents a “new generation” in the Democratid Party. Of Harris supporters, 37% think she’ll enhance America’s “global standing,” while 35% think Harris will continue the policies of the Biden administration.
Ironically, America’s global standing and the threat of continued Biden policies are key reasons many voters are looking elsewhere, with 77% of Harris haters worried she will perpetuate Bidenism and 49% convinced she will erode international perception of the United States.
When asked about candidate qualities, Harris has the advantage over Trump in being perceived as compassionate, energetic, likable, intelligent, hardworking and “moderate,” which suggests Trump’s branding of her as “dangerously liberal” isn’t catching on.
Trump is thought of as more experienced, strong and patriotic.
The polling also indicates the prospect of a Harris election inspires more positive feelings than Biden’s re-election would have, with twice as many people saying they would feel “pride” if the vice president was elected in November rather than the incumbent.
A quarter of independents say they’re more excited about voting in a Harris-Trump race, but that number is dwarfed by the 66% of Democrats and the 37% of Republicans who say the same.
