Caveats abound given the source of the survey, but a prominent Democratic pollster is pushing the narrative that Vice President Kamala Harris has the inside track with swing-state Latino voters.
Somos, which bills itself as a “a Latino-led, Latino-focused organization aimed at empowering hardworking Latinos year-round to participate in our nation’s democracy by taking action in our own communities,” commissioned the survey BSP Research conducted of 800 Hispanic voters from seven key states — and released it Monday to the left-leaning New Republic, which predictably frames the group’s efforts as working.
Harris, per the survey, leads 55% to 37% among voters from that demographic in seven key battlegrounds: Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina.
The pollsters say the data show Harris has a “very strong lead among Latinos” in what they bill as polling that contains a “large enough sample in them to arrive at a confident estimate of the two-party vote in the states that will actually decide the election.”
“Harris has strengthened and consolidated support,” said Melissa Morales, president and founder of Somos PAC.
What’s more: The poll suggests Harris could juice turnout, with 34% of Latinos more excited about voting with her on the ballot, while 10% are less interested in participating in November.
Morales argues former President Donald Trump has “very low favorability within the Latino community,” topping out, and his numbers will keep declining the “more we remind them who Trump actually is.”
The poll suggests that compared with Trump, Harris is well-regarded with Hispanic voters. She’s 21 points above water (55% to 34%) with Latino men under 30 years of age and at 70% approval against 23% disapproval with women in the same age bracket. She also enjoys 69% approval with Hispanics in Nevada and 54% among them in Arizona, one of the places the Biden border policy has harmed the most.
Speaking of the border, the polling indicates Harris’ immigration policy should not be, as she might put it, “unburdened by what has been.”
Asked about combining increased border security with amnesty for illegal immigrants, a position the “border czar” now favors, 65% of respondents view Harris more favorably.
Somos PAC has put its money where its messaging is already in this campaign. As NBC News reported in the spring, during what was a very different presidential race, the group had committed to spending $57 million in eight battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. Crucially, half that spending will be in Nevada and Arizona.
For its part, the Harris campaign says its “winning coalition from 2020 is energized” and Hispanics are a big part of that.
“Since the Vice President launched her campaign, we’ve seen historic enthusiasm from key parts of the Democratic base: Black voters, Latino voters, AANHPI voters, women, and young voters,” claimed Harris’ battleground states director Dan Kanninen in a weekend memo.
Trump’s campaign had a more visible strategy against President Biden with Hispanic voters than against Harris, including a July ad buy in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Team Trump said then it was confident in its ability to cut into Democratic support from Hispanic communities, which contain more than 36 million voters and nearly 15% of the electorate, per the Pew Research Center, citing polling that showed 3 out of every 5 Latino voters had soured on Biden.
With a new Democratic nominee, however, the left is betting the race has recalibrated.
