Yet another new poll from an Upper Midwest battleground state shows the presidential race is too close to call, in the latest sign Democrats are reconciling themselves to Vice President Kamala Harris atop the ticket.
The Detroit News–WDIV-TV live-dial poll, conducted July 22 to 24 in the wake of President Biden leaving the presidential race, shows presumptive Democratic nominee Harris leading Republican nominee Donald Trump by one of the most statistically insignificant margins possible.
Just 0.3% separates the two candidates: Harris has 41.6% support, Trump 41.3%. This lead is well inside the 4-point margin of error.
When Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, rumored to be in the VP mix, is counted as Harris’ running mate, the math improves incrementally for Dems: Harris leads in that scenario 43.6% to 41.3% but does not escape the margin of error even with a calculated home-state play. This suggests an all-woman ticket may not provide the electoral juice some Democrats think.
With neither the vice president nor the former president close to majority support, third-party candidates loom large in the Wolverine State. And looming the largest is a former Democrat poised to play spoiler in the battle for its 15 electoral votes.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running in Michigan under the banner of the Natural Law Party and has 9.7% support in this poll. Given the usual erosion of support for third-party candidates as elections approach, it will be telling to watch future polls showing his support declining and see where those RFK backers end up.
Yet Kennedy is not the only long-shot who could upend the aspirations of the Republican or Democratic candidates given the minuscule margin between Trump and Harris.
Libertarian Chase Oliver has 0.7% support, the Green Party’s Jill Stein gets 0.5%, and 0.3% support “other candidates.”
And 5.6% of Michiganders still don’t know who they’ll support.
The polling suggests Biden’s decision to stand down is causing Democratic voters to stand up again, with 46.4% of those under the age of 30, 38.5% of black voters and 36.6% of self-styled “strong Democrats” saying they’re more excited about Harris on the ballot than they were about the current president.
As is often the case with polling of the Trump-Harris race, a serious gender gap is in play. Trump has a majority of men backing him, with 50.3% support against 35.3% for the vice president. Kennedy takes 8%.
But female voters are standing strong for the first black female candidate atop a major-party ticket.
Harris has 47.4% support, with 33% of women backing Trump and 11.2% backing Kennedy.
The polling, while limited with its sampling of black voters, presents bad news for Trump’s minority-outreach aspirations.
No African Americans said they back the former president, while 82.1% back Harris and 11.5% support Kennedy.
The road to victory for Trump or Harris must include shaking Kennedy’s hold on independents.
RFK Jr. commands a narrow plurality of 27%, followed by Harris at 26% and Trump at 25% and another 18% undecided. Given the limited sampling of unaligned voters, it’s clear that cohort is up for grabs.
This is the second poll this week to show a deadlocked race in Michigan. A swing-state survey from Emerson College found Harris and Trump tied at 44% when the expanded presidential field is considered.
