The latest polls show that Donald Trump will return to the White House — and swing-state voters will pave his way.
The Emerson College poll, conducted Sept. 15-18 in seven electoral precincts, found the former president leading in five and, if the map holds true, would give him 281 electoral votes, enough to surpass the 270-vote threshold needed to win.
Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia (50% to 47%), Arizona and Wisconsin (49% to 48% in both states), Nevada (48.4% to 47.7%), and Pennsylvania (48% to 47%), giving him a total of 62 electoral votes from the field.
Harris leads in North Carolina (49% to 48%) and Michigan (49% to 47%), good for 31 votes from these two crucial states.
According to Emerson Executive Director Spencer Kimball, it's actually a steady race, with only minor changes since the last round of voting before the presidential debate.
“In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump lost one point, and Harris gained one point. In Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, Trump's support remained the same, while Harris's support dropped one point in Michigan and Nevada, and stayed the same in Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump gained 3 points and Harris lost 2 points,” Kimball said Thursday, giving context to the numbers.
Not everything here is good news for Republicans, however.
Despite voters saying they are supporting Trump, a majority in every state believe Harris will win, with 53% in North Carolina, 52% in Michigan, 51% each in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and 50% in Nevada believing Democrats will take over the White House, regardless of how they individually vote.
As other polls have shown, Trump's appeal at the top of the ballot isn't helping, where Republicans are trailing their party's flagbearer in key races in every state.
In Arizona, Lake Cary trails Trump by 7 points, and in the Senate race, trails Democrat Ruben Gallego 42% to 49%.
Mike Rogers is also 5 points behind Trump in the Michigan Senate race: Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads 47% to 42%.
Trump's slight lead in Nevada is not saving Sam Brown in the Senate race; he is on track to lose to Democratic candidate Jacky Rosen, 48% to 41%.
North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson has been trailing in every poll against Democrat Josh Stein, and that's the case here as they trail 40% to 48%.
Similarly, Republican Senate candidates David McCormick of Pennsylvania and Eric Hovde of Wisconsin are also trailing Trump.
McCormick trails incumbent Democrat Bob Casey 42% to 47%, while Hovde trails Tammy Baldwin 46% to 49%.
