NYT’s chief political analyst explains why Trump may be underestimated in polls again

The chief political analyst for The New York Times warned on Sunday that pollsters may not have addressed underlying issues that emerged in 2016 and 2020 and may once again be underestimated Donald Trump.

Times writer Nate Cohn, while warning on x He “doesn’t know whether our polls (or any polls) are ‘correct,'” he said, adding that unavoidable survey bias can skew the results because Democrats dramatically outperform white Republicans when it comes to responding. , which is a Trump stronghold. Pollutant.

“Four years ago, polls were thought to underestimate Mr. Trump because of non-response bias – in which his supporters were less likely to take surveys than demographically similar Biden supporters,” Cohn wrote in an analysis. Was.” many times,

Cohn, 36, one of the most prominent election-data gurus, stressed that “nonresponse bias” is difficult to track, but he said he likes to review the level at which Democrats and Republicans interact to gain insight. Let’s try to respond to pollutants.

“In these last surveys, white Democrats were 16 percent more willing to respond than white Republicans,” he said. “This raises the possibility that polls may once again underestimate Mr. Trump. “We do a lot to account for it, but in the end there are no guarantees.”

Cohn also warned that Democrats appear to be suffering from a “shrinking” lead in early voting, which could help Republicans on Election Day.

He opined that given the recent contradictions between the two parties when it comes to early voting, it is possible that Trump could get a boost on Election Day when GOP voters turn out to vote.

“The pattern is largely the same in battleground states: Democrats lead in early voting; “Republicans are ahead with what is left, and in each case it is not by the wider margin of four years ago, when the pandemic upended normal early voting patterns,” he wrote.

“There’s a bit of a leap of confidence here for the Democrats: They’re counting on a lot of people to vote on Election Day who didn’t vote in 2020 or 2022. Their track record of voting gives plenty of reason to think Chances are that they will do so, but if not, the outcome will soon look very different.

Trump, 78, has historically been against early voting, but this election cycle, his campaign has pushed Republicans to vote early to maximize turnout among the base.

The New York Times and Siena College released a new batch of battleground-state polling on Sunday, showing six of the seven key close contests within the margin of error, or too close to call. Arizona, which leaned toward Trump, was the only exception.

“Generally, the final surveys point to a relatively clear favorite, even if that candidate does not win. This is not going to be one of those elections,” Cohn said of those results.

One finding in the New York Times/Siena College poll that attracted the interest of many pollsters was evidence that late decision-makers may be favoring Vice President Kamala Harris.

Given the jump-ball nature of the race, this could be crucial to the outcome of the race. About 8% of voters claimed to have made their decision recently. Of that group, 55% were in favor of Harris while 44% were in favor of Trump.

Overall, Cohn stressed that he simply does not know how the elections will go and “no one knows.”

Some survey enthusiasts are concerned that surveyors are “hypothesizing” survey results to ensure that their surveys are not outliers.

Experts such as Nate Silver have argued that there is less diversity in voting for the 2024 presidential election than it should be.

Cohn has similarly raised concerns about poll “herding” and outlined ways in which polls may overestimate Republicans.

“Many pollsters (not us) have adopted heavy-handed practices that obtain more Republican-leaning samples, out of a possible but not necessarily justified fear of systematically failing to reach Trump voters again,” Kohn wrote on“The polls are much more sensitive in terms of turnout this cycle.”

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote a memo in response to the latest poll, arguing that its samples have historically leaned to the left.

Fabrizio wrote in a memo shared, “The New York Times is polling an electorate that looks far left in 2020, despite the hard facts of voter registration and early voting indicating a current electorate that is The state has only shifted to the right.” Campaign.

“The New York Times also helpfully acknowledged in its story that it had a harder time reaching Republican voters than the 2020 polls, which were wildly inaccurate,” he said in reference to Cohn’s analysis.

Currently, Trump and Harris are tied for the most recent RealClear Politics The sum of multi-candidate national elections.

Trump is favored in most of the RCP’s battleground state polling averages.