Older voters in Michigan give Trump lead in head-to-head race

If Donald Trump manages to win Michigan for the first time since the 2016 election, voters 50 and older could be the reason.

A new AARP poll from the Wolverine State shows the former president leads Democrat Kamala Harris by 49% to 48% in a two-way ballot test.

And in that scenario, Trump leads the vice president by 2 points among voters 50 and older.

However when younger candidates are added to the mix (a motley crew led by Robert Kennedy Jr. at 3%) the race is tied at 46%, with Trump still leading by 1 point among the 50+ set, and AARP This is important considering that according to the report, 9 out of 10 older voters say that they are almost certain to vote, while only 76% of the youth are voters.

In both head-to-head and full-poll testing, the overall gender gap is clear, with Trump leading by about 20 points with men and Harris having a proportional advantage with women.

Yet as the campaign draws to a close, significant groups are leaning toward Trump.

Part of Trump’s strength in both ballot tests comes from independents. He is up +10 in the binary battle and holds a 7-point lead on the full ballot.

Another Trump stronghold comes from senior swing voters — non-partisans whose decisions could ultimately swing the election one way or the other and who account for 1 in every 6 of those 50 and older who voted this year. do.

Trump dominates that group, with a 12-point lead, and more are undecided or simply defeated: 24% say they don’t know who they will vote for, and 15% say they will vote for the president. Will be completely out. ,

In less favorable news for the former president, this poll shows his support among black voters is down 5%, 81 points behind Harris in a full-field scenario and 85 points behind in a head-to-head heat.

Some Michigan polls show Trump receiving four times more support than the former president and surrogates in the community have followed this cycle,

Although it appears Trump has a path to victory, the window is more narrow in the Senate battle between the former congressman and the current member of the House; Republican Mike Rogers is down against Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, 49% to 46%.

“Democrats are voting for Slotkin by an 89-point margin, with Rogers only leading Republicans by 82 points. However, Rogers leads independents by 5 points, allowing him to keep the race close,” AARP notes.

It appears swing voters are the ones splitting the ticket here, with Rogers unable to capitalize on Trump’s magic.

Slotkin is up 2 points overall with voters over the age of 50. And with swing voters, he’s above 10, suggesting about 1 in 10 of them would choose Trump as president and an ideological rival to represent the state for the next six years in the Senate.

The survey, conducted by Republican firms Fabrizio Ward and Democratic Impact Research, was conducted between October 2 and 8, including “a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters age 50 and older, and an additional 50 Observation of 312 potential black voters age 10 and older.