Former President Donald Trump can win Pennsylvania. But a new poll says it’s to his benefit that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remain a real factor down the stretch.
Otherwise, the Democratic candidate benefits.
That’s a takeaway from a Cygnal survey of 800 likely November voters conducted Aug. 14 and 15.
With Kennedy a candidate, Trump leads the field, albeit well inside the poll’s +/- 3.41% margin of error.
Trump has 44% support. Vice President Kamala Harris sits at 43%.
Kennedy is at 5%, down 4 points month over month as he continues a classic third-party fade.
If he’s eliminated as an option, however, it’s to the vice president’s advantage. She’s up marginally, 48% to 47%, with 5% undecided. When it comes to voters who would “definitely” vote for a given candidate, Harris is up 45% to 41% in a binary battle against the former president.
Independents who otherwise might support Kennedy drive Harris’ margin in a two-way race, with 41% definite about supporting her compared with just 28% for Trump — and a 49% to 42% lead overall.
Kennedy has been in the news for a uniquely brazen transactionality, including a conversation with Trump that included talk of a role in a future Republican administration contingent on RFK endorsing the GOP candidate, followed by a failed attempt to talk to Harris about a job should she be elected.
This survey illustrates a perverse incentive for Trump to hope Kennedy doesn’t lose further traction as a candidate.
The poll also explores another potential misstep for Harris: her much-criticized shunning of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and subsequent selection of his Minnesota counterpart, Tim Walz, as a running mate.
Shapiro is one of two politicians polled here to be above water in overall favorability in a group that includes Harris, Trump, President Biden, Sens. Bob Casey and John Fetterman and GOP Senate hopeful Dave McCormick.
His +22 (56% favorable; 34% unfavorable) puts him light years ahead of Casey, who is at +3, and Harris’ -5, which is weighed down by 48% of respondents regarding her very unfavorably. It could be worse for the California Democrat, though. Biden’s rating is at a dismal -17, with his disapproval at 57%.
Despite Casey’s marginally positive approval rating, voters still say they’re sick of him.
“In the Senate race, fewer than four-in-ten voters believe Casey deserves reelection (37%) while nearly half (47%) say they want someone new. A third of voters (33%) say it is definitely time for someone new, including a plurality of Independents (39%) and even one-in-five Democrats (19%),” the pollsters note.
But whether McCormick has the juice to capitalize on popular discontent is far from a settled question, even with Casey underperforming the generic ballot by 8 points with Democrats. The incumbent is ahead 46% to 42%, with 13% undecided.
And independents are driving the margin despite the qualms of many. In a two-man matchup, Casey is ahead 46% to 33%, with Casey gaining 7 points and McCormick losing 6 since June.
And when it comes to those “definitely” voting for one candidate or another in that scenario, Casey leads McCormick 31% to 15%. It’s unclear whether the Republican will find the crossover voters he needs.
But McCormick and Trump can take solace in the continued unpopularity of Democratic policies: 66% of all respondents think the country is on the wrong track, a number consistent with previous administrations of this survey and one that includes 40% of Democrats and 62% of independents.
