LANGHORNE, Pennsylvania — Polling in the Keystone State shows that the Senate race, which was once approaching a close contest, has become much closer as blue-collar voters demand change.
And this could have big consequences for Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
The CNN/SSRS poll of 785 registered voters shows Republican Dave McCormick is now tied with Democratic Senator Bob Casey.
It’s the latest positive sign for McCormick, a West Point graduate. War Veteran His opponent ran ads across the state over the summer questioning his deep ties to Pennsylvania and criticizing his tenure as a hedge-fund executive.
Another ad run by Casey criticized McCormick's investments in China, though the three-term senator also said have a small stake In the same chinese legal-fentanyl manufacturer.
Polls in the early summer showed Casey with at least a 6-point lead, and some even said the incumbent president could win re-election by a double-digit margin.
But despite a huge advertising campaign in the most expensive race of the year, momentum has shifted.
Both candidates have 46% support in CNN's poll, the most favorable poll for a GOP challenger this cycle. According to RealClearPolitics, the average poll shows a 3.4% lead for Casey.
McCormick's strength in this survey comes from several key groups that could be mobilized ahead of the November election — and which could cause trouble for a fourth-term Democratic candidate.
To start, McCormick has the highest percentage of the vote, as voters who are 45 years of age or older tend to vote.
The challenger has an 8-point lead, 51% to 43%.
He fared even better among those aged 50 to 64, with 60% support against the incumbent candidate.
McCormick is also a blue-collar favorite in the CNN poll, and his numbers are on par with Trump in two segments.
Republicans have 53% support among non-college graduates of all races, while Casey has only 38% support.
The choice is even more lopsided among white respondents who did not graduate from college. McCormick leads 61% to 38%.
It's not just educational attainment that drives McCormick's support; many voters from lower socioeconomic backgrounds feel they have been left behind by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Bob Casey.
Among voters earning less than $50,000 a year, McCormick has 48% support, 9 points more than Casey, and Trump has 49% support among the same group.
McCormick credited that discontent for his growing momentum at a press conference held in Bucks County on Tuesday.
“For the 60% of Pennsylvanians who are living paycheck to paycheck, this isn't a party-specific thing. It applies to everybody — independent voters, Republicans, Democrats,” McCormick said at an Americans for Prosperity event. “A wide-open border, the fentanyl crisis, it's killing Pennsylvanians. It affects everybody.”
In addition to socioeconomic indicators, gender differences are also shaping the race: 55% of men are backing McCormick, giving her a 16-point lead, but Casey dominates among female voters at between 53% and 40%.
Pennsylvania Republicans, many of whom were not excited about Dr. Mehmet Oz in 2022, are with him here as well. McCormick has 93% of Republicans, indicating a united party in the final two months of the 2024 cycle.
