(The Center Square) – A new poll shows Ruben Gallego is leading Republican Kari Lake in the race for Arizona’s U.S. senator.
Since her defeat in the 2022 governor's race, Lake has struggled to attract independent and undecided GOP voters. Gallego is leading by seven points in a survey conducted by Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights. The report also said that Gallego has received more support from the Democratic Party, while Lake has received more support from the Republican Party. Gallego has also managed to stay ahead among independent voters.
“Lake has also struggled to build decisive leads on a number of issues,” the NPI report said. “Among all voters, he only has an edge on immigration and inflation — both issues on which Trump had substantial leads over Harris. While Lake is trusted by a majority of Republicans on immigration (78%), his support falls short on other key issues, such as climate change, where only 56% of Republicans trust him. This disparity highlights a broader problem for Lake: his inability to secure strong, across-the-board support from his base.”
npi Voting The poll was conducted Aug. 12-16 among 1,003 registered Arizona voters, with a margin of error of 3%.
In a poll conducted by Fox News under the direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, which surveyed more than 1,000 Arizona voters, Gallego is leading by 13 points, with the Democrat at 48% and Lake at 46%.
It also looked at Arizonans' preferences in the presidential election, where Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by just one point. They were also asked if they would vote for a ballot amendment to add the right to abortion to Arizona's constitution, to which a 73% majority said “yes.”
In response to recent polls showing that Gallego was more likely to be elected, Lake's campaign released a statement citing narrower polls as well as a poll conducted by his own campaign which showed him ahead of Gallego.
“Recent polling data clearly shows this race is neck and neck, with many polls putting Cary Lake within the margin of error,” Lake said. “Any poll showing a large lead for either candidate clearly does not match Arizona's electoral history and current political landscape. We are confident that as voters learn more about the clear difference between Cary Lake's proven leadership and Ruben Gallego's record of far-left policies, they will choose the candidate who truly puts Arizona first.”
Although Lake has never held any office, she is considered a well-known personality due to her years of experience as a local television anchor. Gallego, on the other hand, served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2011-2013 and has been serving in the US House of Representatives since 2015.
“Gallego is in a better position in this race. In our polarized world, it's hard to imagine things will be better for her than they were last year,” said Mike Noble, founder and CEO of NPI. “Lake clearly has room to grow with disaffected Republicans and swing voters. The real question is – is she a candidate who can expand her support?”
Gallego and Lake have agreed to a televised debate that will take place on Wednesday, October 9 at 6 p.m. (PST).
Gallego's office did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication.
