Election betting platform Polymarket plans to return to its success in the US by accurately predicting President-elect Donald Trump’s landslide victory over Vice President Kamala Harris for the White House.
PolyMarket is currently only available to clients outside the US – including the French “whale” trader who bet millions of dollars on a Trump victory and Made a profit of approximately $48 million Called after the elections.
In 2022, the platform halted trading in the US and paid a $1.4 million fine with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to settle charges that it had failed to register with the agency.
“I want to give a lot of credit to the people who fought to legalize political prediction markets in America,” PolyMarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan told CNBC “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “We are now in a position to be aggressive with expansion.”
Coplan has rival betting platform Kalshi to thank Main decision in October Ban on operation of Kalshi was lifted and election contract trading was allowed.
“A showing of irreparable harm is a necessary condition for a stay,” Judge Patricia Millett wrote in the ruling.
Polymarket’s election betting was a huge hit this year – gamblers placed bets of more than $3.7 billion.
According to the Polymarket site, on the morning of the day before Election Day, the betting site said Trump’s chances of winning the presidency were 58.6%, while Harris’ chances were 41.4%. The site’s bets were a more accurate prediction than recent surveys.
“On Polymarket it looked like the deal was done, and if you were just watching TV, you would think it was a big deal,” Coplan said. The 26-year-old mind behind Polymarket created the betting site when he was just 21 years old.
Those who believe betting sites are the next big polling tool argue that the market reacts quickly to changes in sentiment and keeps voters engaged.
After seeing Kalshi’s immense success in election betting, Interactive Brokers and Robinhood soon launched their own versions ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
“In my view this is probably going to be a bigger market than the equities market in 15 years,” Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, told CNBC “Closing Bell” on Wednesday. “This is fundamentally a global marketplace – the questions are equally relevant to wherever people live around the world.”
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has said that election betting platforms are more accurate than traditional polling because participants have a real stake in the outcomes.
“The great thing about these markets is that people have money on the line,” Tenev previously told CNBC. “You can trust that they care more about the results and that these results should be much more reliable than simple polling.”
Trump supporter Elon Musk Polymarket has been praised in the same spirit.
The billionaire Tesla and SpaceX founder said in a post on X that Polymarket is “more accurate than polls, because there is actually money on the line.”
On election night, before the results were announced, Musk wrote: “The prophecy has been fulfilled!”
