The suicides of Robin Williams in 2014 and of Kate Spade and Anthony Bourdain in 2018 led to a surge in suicidal thoughts and behaviors among the public, a troubling new report from Columbia University finds.
Columbia researchers developed a computer model that estimated the amount of suicidal ideation and the number of suicides that stemmed from these three celebrity deaths. The model takes into account the number of weekly calls to the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline and nationwide suicide data.
Columbia researchers determined there was a thousand-fold increase in the likelihood that a person began to contemplate suicide following Williams’ death at 63.
The profound rise in suicidal ideation led to a spike in calls to the 988 Lifeline. The number of “excess suicides” nearly doubled after Williams died, per the Columbia study, which cited media attention and the public’s connection to the beloved comedian for the uptick.
The Spade and Bourdain deaths — which occurred three days apart in June 2018 — had less of an effect on the public, by about half.
“The model we developed shows how suicide contagion, including both suicidal ideation and deaths, spreads quickly following the suicide deaths of celebrities whose lives and work are known and likely meaningful to large portions of the population,” explained study co-author Jeffrey Shaman, interim dean of Columbia Climate School.
In 2014 and 2018, the increased suicide contagion rates lasted about two weeks before returning to baseline levels.
The study findings, published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, provide a framework for quantifying the suicide crisis to better understand, prevent and contain its spread.
While suicidal behavior is often the result of a constellation of factors, research has found that exposure to suicide can trigger this behavior among vulnerable individuals.
Shaman developed models to track the spread of influenza and COVID-19. The Columbia team used a similar structure for the suicide model, treating the ideation and behaviors as a contagious system. They tracked the number of people capable of spreading the disease and the number of people susceptible to “infection.”
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, suicide rates rose 37% between 2000 and 2018 and dropped 5% between 2018 and 2020 before peaking in 2021.
Meanwhile, the Columbia researchers hope to create a better model that provides instantaneous estimations of suicide risk.
That system would require 988 Lifeline call volume and suicide data to be available in real time.
Alternate models would simulate responses among specific communities and account for media and public health outreach efforts.
“Ultimately, our aim is to work toward a point where a suicide contagion model can inform a rapid response geared at preventing suicide,” said study co-author Katherine Keyes, a Columbia professor of epidemiology.
If you or someone you know is affected by any of the issues raised in this story, call or text the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline at 988.
