MIAMI – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping an eye on a few disturbances for possible tropical development, but a storm moving a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic is the primary focus for forecasters.
The NHC says the disturbance is east of the Caribbean Sea and its associated showers and thunderstorm activity are showing signs of organization.
“By late next week, this system could be over extremely warm waters and in favorable atmospheric conditions to strengthen in the western Caribbean Sea,” said Fox Weather hurricane specialist Brian Norcross. “But it has to organize first, so no reliable forecast is possible.”
The NHC has estimated the chance of the storm developing into a tropical storm over the next week to be between 40–50%, a level Norcross believes will remain until the system shows signs of better organization.
“Several long-range forecasts suggest the system will turn north into the Gulf (of Mexico) around next weekend, but it's so far away that we can't focus on any specific forecasts,” Norcross said. “At this time, be aware of a potential hurricane threat near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula around next weekend and into the Southeast next week.”
The NHC said the disturbance off the coast of Africa has dissipated and is no longer being monitored, however a new threat could soon emerge in the region.
A tropical storm moving over western Africa will move offshore on Monday, and environmental conditions may promote some slow development over the coming week as it moves slowly west or west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, the NHC said.
Development likely low as Gulf Coast disturbance hits, but flood threat remains
The NHC says a trough of low pressure is currently producing a large but disorganized area of storms off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana, and there is still a low chance of tropical development.
With winds too weak to steer the system, the storm is expected to meander near the coast for most of next week. But some slow tropical development is possible if the system remains off the coast over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, according to the NHC.
For now, the NHC is forecasting a low chance of at least one tropical depression developing within the next week. The agency warns that regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding along parts of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts over the next few days.
