The presidential race in the Wolverine State looks like it’ll be competitive through the November election, and with that in mind, some normally niche groups may be the ultimate deciders.
That’s one major takeaway from an American Association of Retired Persons survey of 1,382 likely Michigan voters conducted between Aug. 7 and Aug. 11, which shows one in six (16% of) voters over the age of 50 say they’re “ticket-splitting swing voters — a large enough bloc to sway any of the statewide races.”
This means voters may opt for former President Donald Trump in the presidential race and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the Senate race or Republican Mike Rogers for Senate and Vice President Kamala Harris for the White House.
When the larger field is considered, Trump holds a marginal lead over Harris, 45% to 43%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. at 6%, other minor candidates combining for 2% and 4% undecided.
Both candidates are above 90% with their respective parties, suggesting the bases are united as Labor Day and the traditional beginning of the general election campaign comes into sight.
A two-way race is even tighter, with Trump and Harris each at 48%.
In that context, where the small sliver of wavering seniors go is especially important to the two major-party campaigns, especially given sharp breaks in the data.
In the full field, Trump leads Harris 46% to 44% among voters age 50 and over, with particular strength among those 65 and older (48% to 42%). But there are divides in how more mature voters see this field.
Black voters and women seem to be firmly in Harris’ corner.
While just 6% of the former (voters Trump needs to win the state) back Trump, 84% support Harris. Other Michigan polls have shown low support for Trump among African American voters, including a WDIV survey showing he had no black support. In this AARP poll, an additional oversample of 312 black likely voters 50 and older offers ballast for the number.
Though women weren’t oversampled specifically here, they are firmly behind Harris no matter how old they are. She has 51% support among all women, and 50% among the older set, with Trump below 40% in both cases.
Meanwhile, men and white voters like Trump.
The former president leads Harris by 20 points (54% to 34%) with all men and 53% to 36% in those in their 50s or older. Trump also has a 14-point lead (52% to 38%) among white voters over the age of 50.
Though Michiganders could support Trump for president, this poll suggests his coattails may not extend downballot. Democrat Slotkin holds a 3-point lead over Rogers, 47% to 44%, with 8% more on the fence. Similar trends play out in the Senate race as they do at the top of the ticket regarding splits along ethnic and gender lines.
Unsurprisingly, AARP claims the secret to bringing out these high-propensity voters is to promise to hear their concerns and act accordingly.
“Michigan voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Paula Cunningham, AARP Michigan’s state director. “If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters over age 50, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers, who are highly motivated to vote this November.”
