Trump closes in on Harris in Wisconsin to win early in-person voters

WATERTOWN, Wisconsin – New polling shows Donald Trump has the lead among Wisconsin early and Election Day voters as the state continues to see historic levels of turnout. pre-election voting,

A Marquette University Law School poll indicates a tightening in the presidential race as Kamala Harris’ lead among likely voters has dropped from 4 points to 1 point in September.

in school final pre-election voting50% of likely voters supported Harris, while Trump received 49% of the vote.

The veep received 52% of the vote to Trump’s 48% among the same group in late September, but the race is still headed toward Election Day, with both sets of results coming within a 4.4-point margin of error. .

Although early in-person voting this cycle is off the charts since the October 22 start date, there is no way to predict which candidate has the lead, because Wisconsin does not register voters based on party affiliation. .

Still, the Marquette survey gives some indication of how voters plan to cast their ballot.

Among likely voters, 52% of those who plan to vote early and in person favor Trump, while 47% favor Harris. Trump supporters also lead in those planning to vote on Election Day, at 56% compared to Harris’s 44%.

Absentee voters gave Harris the largest advantage in early voting, with 70% supporting Harris and 30% voting for Trump.

Wisconsin surpassed the one million mark in early voting on Wednesday, with 1,109,037 absentee ballots returned. Of those, 609,461 were early, in-person votes – an increase of 32% for early in-person voting and an overall decrease of 28% for all early voting (including absentee by mail) from the same time in 2020.

Wisconsin’s record-high turnout in the 2020 pandemic election was 3.3 million, meaning voters cast one-third of the ballots cast in previous presidential elections, less than a week before the election.

Wisconsin Same Day Voter Registration There will be another wild card on election day.

Democratic enthusiasm increased from September polling – 75%, up from 71% – while Republican enthusiasm remained about the same, falling one point from 67% to 66%.

Pollster Charles Franklin said Wednesday that this year’s enthusiasm levels are on track with 2020, which could indicate that Wisconsin’s record 2020 turnout could be repeated on Election Day.

Franklin also said enthusiasm among independents in the latest survey dropped from 50% to 36% from the September survey.

Analysis of group polling shows a substantial gender gap of 26 points among voters, giving Trump a 12-point advantage with men and Harris a 14-point advantage with women. This is actually lower than in both 2016 and 2020, when the gender gap was 30 and 32 points respectively.

Aggregating registered voters from July–October surveys, the VP overtakes the former president among city dwellers (Harris +36), voters aged 18–29 (Harris +22), black voters (Harris +64) and college- Went. Educated (Harris +18).

Trump continues to lead among rural and small-town voters (Trump +23), non-college voters (+7), and born-again Protestants (Trump +60).

While Franklin said the negative publicity contributed to a slight decline in favorability for the candidates, their respective speeches, negative ads and campaign rallies did not change Harris and Trump’s perceived characteristics among voters as much as Harris did in the Democratic primary. Have stepped on top of. Tickets in July.

For example, Trump comes out ahead for “strong record of accomplishments” (53% to 45%) and “a strong leader” (55% to 50%).

Harris leads on “she has the right temperament to be president” (56% to 45%) and “is intelligent” (59% to 53%).

Harris stumps Trump in Madison’s safe blue zone on Wednesday night mobilized Brown County, one of the top six GOP strongholds – along with former Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre.

Both campaigns will try to get out the vote in Milwaukee on Friday night with competing campaign rallies in the Democratic stronghold.