Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are virtually deadlocked in all seven vital battleground states with fewer than 10 weeks to go before Election Day.
Trump, 78, narrowly leads his Democratic rival in Arizona (50%-47%), North Carolina (49%-48%) and Wisconsin (49%-48%), according to a survey conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill that was made public Thursday.
Harris, 59, has the slimmest of edges in Georgia (49%-48%), Michigan (50%-47%) and Nevada (49%-48%).
In Pennsylvania, considered by many to be the state on which the election outcome will turn, Trump and Harris each received 48% support.
In each state, the gap between the two candidates was within the poll margin of error.
“Harris leads Trump among independents in each state, with the exception of Nevada, where Trump leads 50% to 44%,” according to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball. “In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women; however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020.”
The survey showed Democrats on track to sweep all five swing state Senate races, with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) topping Republican Kari Lake 49% to 42%; Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) edging out former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) 47% to 41%; Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) beating Republican Dave McCormick 48% to 44%; Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) leading Republican Eric Hovde 49% to 48%; and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) ahead of Republican Sam Brown 50% to 40%.
In North Carolina’s gubernatorial race, Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein bested Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson 47% to 41%, according to the poll.
Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, embarked Wednesday on a two-day bus tour of Georgia, while the Republican governor, Brian Kemp, has publicly suggested that Trump can’t win four more years in office if he doesn’t take the Peach State.
Six of the seven states polled went for President Biden in 2020, with only North Carolina backing Trump.
The economy was the top issue for voters in all seven states. Housing affordability was considered the second-most important issue by residents of Georgia and Nevada, “threats to democracy” was second-most important in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, immigration was the second issue in Arizona and healthcare was deemed second-most important by voters in North Carolina.
The Emerson College Polling and the Hill survey sampled 720 likely voters in Arizona with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%.
In Georgia and Michigan, 800 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.4%, while 950 likely voters were polled in Pennsylvania with a 3.1% margin of error.
In Nevada, 1,168 likely voters were polled with a margin of error of 2.8%; 775 likely voters in North Carolina were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.5%; and 850 likely voters in Wisconsin were polled with a margin of error of 3.3%.
The poll was taken Aug. 25-28, following last week’s Democratic National Convention.
