President Biden’s debate debacle has giddy New York and New Jersey GOP leaders believing former President Donald Trump could be the first Republican to win their states in four decades.
Even if carrying the blue states is a longshot, party insiders and independent analysts expect Trump will do strongly enough in the suburbs that he can help Republican House incumbents defend seats they won in 2022 – and maybe even make gains.
“Trump can win New York just like Ronald Reagan did in 1980,” said New York State Republican Party chairman Ed Cox.
A recent Siena College poll had Trump trailing Biden by single digits — 8 percentage points in the Empire State, 47% to 39%. The survey was taken a week before the June 25 debate.
A Trump campaign insider claimed internal polling also shows the contest in New Jersey is a “toss-up.” A Trump May rally in Wildwood in south Jersey drew 100,000 supporters.
Cox said Reagan won because of “stagflation” under then-Democratic President Jimmy Carter and similarly, many voters have suffered from Bidenflation.
“New York, a Democratic stronghold for decades, is within reach for Trump. The conditions are ripe for political realignment with New York part of a Trump victory,” he said.
“While New York is a blue state, it is more blue-collar blue than Upper West Side blue.”
He also said Trump’s campaign focus – the border-migrant crisis, the economy and crime – are resonating with frustrated blue-leaning voters in the northeast.
“Biden’s debate performance hurts the Democrats in New York running for swing seats,” said O’Brien “O.B.” Murray, a campaign strategist who has worked for Republicans and Democrats.
He said first-term Republican Rep. Michael Lawyer should have an easier time winning re-election against Democrat ex-Congressman Mondaire Jones in the Hudson Valley’s 17th Congressional District.
Murray also said Biden’s implosion makes it “more difficult” for moderate Democrat John Avlon – a former speech writer for Rudy Giuliani – to topple first-term Republican Congressman Nick LaLota in the 1st Congressional District, which includes Long Island’s East End and Suffolk County.
Meanwhile across the Hudson, New Jersey Republicans say that Trump could be the first Republican to carry New Jersey since George H.W. Bush defeated Democrat George Dukakis in 1988.
“Biden’s debate performance was so bad that New Jersey is definitely in play. The result is that our US Senate candidate, Curtis Bashaw, has a real shot and Congressman [Tom] Kean’s re-election was just made easier.” said Bill Palatucci, a National Republican Campaign Committee member from the Garden State and pal of former Gov. Chris Christie.
The New Jersey Republican Party blasted an e-fundraising blitz shortly after the debate claiming in bold letters, “NEW JERSEY IS IN PLAY.”
“We are working day in and day out to reach every single voter in New Jersey and spread the word that we are in this to win it!,” the Jersey GOP said.
Doug Muzzio, a retired Baruch College public affairs professor who lives in New Jersey and who called Biden’s debate performance a “disaster,” said, “New Jersey is more in play this election cycle.
“It’s New Jersey. Crazy things happen in New Jersey. It’s not impossible. It’s plausible but remotely so.”
New York Democrats – led by Gov. Kathy Hochul – circled Biden’s wagon, despite calls from the liberal New York Times editorial board and even some Democrats that the 81-year-old should step aside and give another Democrat a chance to take on Trump.
Hochul, during an MSNBC interview Sunday, gave a full throated defense of Biden, and urged fellow Democrats to buckle up and get back “on the team.”
“You have a rough night. The morning after defines you,” Hochul said.
She claimed Biden was “energetic, fully alert” when she saw him in New York Friday at the Stonewall National Monument Visitor Center.
“Tune out the chattering class inside the beltway … The editorial boards. Everyone pontificating that they have the answer.”
Biden is far better for the country over “convict” Trump hand down, who will sow chaos and a constitutional crisis if he ends up back at the White House, Hochul said.
“I say to my friends who are Democrats: wake up today, start up with a plan, get back on the team and march forward to victory,” she said.
New York State Democratic Party chairman Jay Jacobs said Biden had a “bad night” during the debate, but he can get back on the horse.
“I would caution the Republicans who are giddy over a setback for the Democratic nominee, President Biden. I remember being giddy in 2016 when the Access Hollywood tape was released. I thought Trump was finished,” Jacobs said.
Trump was captured on the infamous tape making lewd comments about women, including that it was OK to “grab ’em by the p—sy.” The video was published a month before the election between Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Trump won the election.
