Trump outperforms Harris among swing-state voters — including early voters

The latest national polling shows that swing-state voters are more likely to support Donald Trump than the overall population, providing some clarity on whether he can overtake Kamala Harris in three weeks.

The Harvard-Harris survey, conducted between October 11 and 13, found that the vice president is ahead by one point with 2,596 likely voters overall, but it’s a different matter with 898 battleground voters in seven states that are roughly Will definitely decide. Election.

In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which together have 93 electoral votes, the former president is 48% to 46%, with 6% undecided or leaning toward a third-party candidate.

Trump is stronger with independent voters, leading among the swing group in swing states, 44% to 40%. Voters who have already made up their minds also support Trump, 52% to 47%, leaving Harris to rely on voters “still considering their choice.” Among those Wafflers, he is up 28% from 41%, with 31% undecided.

The key to Trump’s performance in this survey is his appeal to places and demographics that Republicans have abandoned for decades.

The former president shows strength with urban voters with 42% support; If so, it overturns the long-held theory that Republicans can’t win big cities.

Trump also showed strength with black voters, taking 22%, which would be a dramatic improvement over his 13% with that group four years ago and 12% in his 2016 victory.

Finally, the survey shows the ex-president gaining ground with college-educated voters, who have been a source of strength for Harris in other polling, as she connects with them with the booksmart set at 49%.

Trump is also performing well with early voters, as Republicans and GOP-leaning independents have made their peace by voting before Election Day, thus reversing a structural advantage for Democrats during the 2020 pandemic election. Is.

While Harris is at +8 in overall early voting, it’s a different story in the battleground states, where Trump leads 48% to 47% among those who want to cast ballots days or weeks before the count.

Democrats have a +7 advantage in early voting this cycle — down from a 19-point lead in 2020.

Voters also have questions about recent veep interviews, including Heavily edited “60 Minutes” interview,

85 percent of voters, including 88% of Republicans, 87% of Democrats and 80% of independents, want the full transcript of the interview whose aired version deviated sharply from the preview when it came to multi-scrutiny of the Biden-Harris administration. and Israel’s largely unpleasant position on regional conflicts.

Independents are particularly angry about Harris’s softball media strategy, which includes sex-chat festivals such as spectacular games of footsie with “heavyweights”. call her daddy and hoary shock jock howard stern In addition to the sympathetically edited CBS sitdown: 54% of undecided voters say the interviews hurt them, and 55% believe they raise questions about their readiness to be president – ​​up over the past four years A serious indictment of a career politician with national prominence as an elected leader and as a candidate for almost two years before that.

All told, these are not the numbers Harris wants in detail, as her campaign’s essential “happiness” message turns into 2016-style angst — and the vibes turn sour and deep amid existential questions about whether A heartbeat away woman has what it takes to work.