Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan will have wide discretion to choose from six potential punishments for former President Donald Trump at his sentencing next month — including some that would all but prevent the GOP frontrunner from hitting the campaign trail.
The first problem for the presumptive Republican nominee — who was convicted of falsifying business records by a Manhattan jury this week — is timing.
Merchan’s July 11 sentencing hearing is four days before the Republican National Convention, meaning he could potentially compel the former president to skip it.
The sentencing could also upend the 2024 presidential debate calendar if Trump’s sentence prevents him from attending.
The second of the two matchups, hosted by ABC, will be held on Sept. 10 and a good performance is widely seen as essential by Team Trump.
Merchan cannot disqualify Trump from running, but the judge — who was ripped Friday by Trump as a “devil” — can impose various sentences that upend the race. His options:
PRISON
The most extreme option is also the least likely, experts say.
“At absolute most, a prison sentence for Trump would look like anywhere from one to three years. While it’s also unlikely to happen, a sentence beyond one year would mean he serves his time at an upstate prison. A sentence of a year or less would be served at Rikers,” said Jason Goldman, a criminal defense attorney in New York City.
“No other human convicted of this specific crime has ever served a day,” he added.
The city has already made contingency plans about the possibility of jailing Trump, with Mayor Adams saying the city jail at Rikers Island was “ready.”
Incarceration does not block Trump from continuing his campaign.
In 1920, socialist Eugene V. Debs mounted his last presidential run from prison where he was serving time for violating the Espionage Act — and managed to win nearly a million votes.
HOUSE ARREST
While it’s about as unlikely as prison, some see house arrest as potentially more insidious.
Locking up Trump in his Fifth Avenue triplex would effectively keep him off the campaign trail without the spectacle and expense of prison.
“Jail, home detention, even probation for a 77-year-old, first-time offender (and former president at that) on the lowest level non-violent felony, who has a powerful appeal and no history of violence, drugs, or alcohol abuse, is almost unheard of,” said Aida Leisenring, a criminal defense attorney at Barket Epstein.
“Home detention is not a state sentence, but the judge could make it a condition of probation, whereby President Trump would only be allowed to leave his residence for medical, religious and legal purposes and anything else the judge allows,” she said. Such a sentence . . . would raise more than eyebrows.”
PROBATION
Probation is “much more likely” than prison or house arrest, but it could be disruptive, legal insiders told The Post.
Under normal New York rules, a probation officer would have to approve any time Trump wants to leave the Empire State — something which could complicate his plans to hit the stump in swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan.
“The most immediate challenge for the president is the standard rules for the probation officer. Ordinarily a convicted person must get approval for any trip out of the state, a rather daunting prospect for a presidential candidate. Is a probation officer really going to deliberate whether Trump can go to Chicago but not Las Vegas?” George Washington University Law Professor Jonathan Turley told The Post.
In practice, Merchan would have wide authority to set the terms of probation and could allow Trump more leniency.
CONDITIONAL DISCHARGE
In this case, Trump would be released, but beholden to certain court-ordered conditions, explained Martin Horn, professor emeritus at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. .
“He could be required to pay a fine by such and such a date, and once he meets that condition, his case is done,” Horn said.
“It all depends on the conditions imposed, and if a restriction on travel is imposed, the judge could require him to remain within the jurisdiction, but that’d be highly unusual — highly unusual,” Horn added.
Before sentencing, Trump will have to sit for an interview with a probation officer, who will write up his pre-sentencing report, which the judge theoretically factors into his decision.
FINES
The maximum fine that can be imposed for a class E felony is $5,000 under New York law, which experts agree Merchan will likely hand down.
The jurist could try to pack on the pain by ordering consecutive fines for each of the 34 felony counts, amounting to a $170,000 tab.
But attorneys believe Merchan will opt to have the fines run concurrently.
“It’d be unheard of for them to do consecutive fines on a case like this, but everything is unheard of in this case like this so who knows,” said white-collar criminal defense attorney Jonathan Rosenberg.
COMMUNITY SERVICE
Merchan could also impose community service on the former president, a situation that might force Trump into menial servitude — but would not otherwise impact the presidential race.
“He could also receive community service as part of a probationary sentence, including picking up trash on the side of the road,” criminal defense attorney Jeffrey Lichtman told The Post.
Trump might also serve this sentence at a food bank or a community garden.
“I don’t know any case where a person in their late 70s with no criminal record gets convicted of the lowest level felonies and goes to jail. NYC Probation would just be a waste of money. Some sort of community service would be the most appropriate punishment,” criminal defense attorney Arthur Aidala told The Post.
LOOKING AHEAD
- June 2024: US Supreme Court expected to issue decision on whether Trump is immune from prosecution in the federal case alleging he plotted to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
- June 13: Deadline for Trump’s lawyers to file motions to challenge the ‘hush money” trial verdict and to file sentencing recommendation to Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan.
- June 27: First presidential debate. Also the deadline for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to file sentencing recommendations.
- July 11: Trump sentenced by Merchan in the hush money case. If he is hit with jail time, it would begin immediately unless an appellate court agrees to stay the sentence during an appeal.
- Jul 15-18: Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
- Aug. 10: Deadline for Trump to file notice of appeal.
- Sept. 10: Second debate.
- Nov. 5: Presidential election
