Pennsylvania, the Keystone State, could be the keystone for the election. Which region it falls into will likely be determined by which of its political regions has the highest voter turnout.
Democrats have long relied on running up the score in the state's cities. This includes Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, of course, but also extends to mid-tier places that tend to produce big Democratic margins. Scranton, Harrisburg, Allentown, Bethlehem, Erie and Wilkes-Barre are as important to their chances as the two metropolises.
Democrats' prospects could prove even more challenging this year because Donald Trump has done comparatively well with minority voters. Each of these places and other smaller ones have significant numbers of blacks, Latinos or both.
Trump performed better with these demographics in 2020 than he did in 2016, and polls have shown the former president running a few points ahead of his 2020 results. Shrinking Democratic margins in party strongholds would make a Trump victory more likely.
it's because trump Its effect will be visible in rest of the state also.
James Carville, Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign manager, joked that Pennsylvania includes Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between.
This may exaggerate the Republican lean here, but the areas between the two cities remain largely Republican centers for the vote.
These areas are also the core of Obama-Trump supporting blue-collar voters who contributed to Trump's rise.
Luzerne County, in the northeastern corner of the state, is a prime example.
Barack Obama won by 5 points against the elite Mitt Romney, but Trump won by 19 points against Hillary Clinton.
Even “Scranton Joe” Biden was able to narrow Trump's margin to only 14 points. Since then, Republicans have been winning steadily and There is a possibility of passing For the first time in decades, Democrats topped the voter registration rolls on Election Day.
Something similar is happening across the state. Democrats had a 685,000-person lead over Republicans in voter registration in November 2020. That lead had shrunk to 396,000 people by this year’s April primary, and it has fallen another 46,000 people since then.
Interestingly, most of this is due to party switching.
About 75,000 more Democrats and independents have changed their party registration to Republican than Republicans and indies have joined Democrats between 2021 and 2023. The GOP has gained about 25,000 more registrants so far this year.
Both trends point to good results for Trump, but this is balanced by the former president's continued weakness in the state's educated suburbs.
This trend is especially pronounced in the Philadelphia suburban counties — Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery — and is the main reason why Vice President Kamala Harris still has a good chance of winning the state.
Chester, Pennsylvania's most educated and wealthiest county, is a great example of this movement. Mitt Romney won by a slim margin in 2012, but Clinton won by more than 9 points.
Biden turned this into a landslide 17-point victory; similar dramatic moves were made in other educated communities, causing Trump to lose the state by a slim margin in 2020.
The performance of each candidate in each constituency will determine who will emerge victorious.
Harris needs high turnout and margins from her traditional urban base, as well as consistently big wins in white, upper-class suburbs.
Trump needs to regain his 2016 lead in rural and small-town Pennsylvania and cut into Harris's margins in cities and affluent suburbs.
Two counties at each end of the state will provide early signals on election night.
Erie and Northampton are bellwether counties that tend to swing back and forth in close elections. Trump won both seats in 2016 and lost both in 2020. If they win again, it would be a good sign for his campaign.
One reason for this is that winning here opens up many paths to reach 270 electoral votes.
If he wins Pennsylvania's 19 votes and all the states he won in 2020, he only needs 15 more votes to move into the White House. He can get those votes by winning only Georgia or Michigan, or by winning Arizona or Wisconsin and Nevada, or by winning only Arizona and Wisconsin and losing all the others.
In short, Pennsylvania is not only a cornerstone for Trump, but also the gateway to victory.
Smart observers will be paying close attention to where the campaigns choose to go over the next two months.
Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, can be expected to make forays into rural areas, but will they spend more time wooing affluent suburbanites or urban minorities?
Harris will certainly spend a lot of time in cities and suburbs trying to hold together the Biden coalition, but will she and Tim Walz spend time elsewhere wooing blue-collar white people?
It is too early to say who will win this political version of trench warfare.
What is certain is that how each party views the three regions of the state will determine who wins.
