Why Hispanics are abandoning the Democrats — and could put Trump back in the White House

Hispanic Americans have long been a base of support for the Democratic Party. There are signs that is changing – and it could decide the election this November.

Democrats have won the Hispanic vote in every presidential election since 1972. Except for 2004, since 1992, Democratic candidates have always defeated their Republican counterpart. at least 35 points With Hispanic voters.

Surprisingly for some, this began to change during the Trump administration.

Hispanics are largely working class, and by 2020 they had begun to identify warmly with Donald Trump and his party.

Joe Biden won among Hispanics by just 23 points, 60 to 37 points, data from the Democratic firm Catalyst shows. This was enough to shift Florida from a swing state to a Republican-leaning state and give Trump a boost in both Nevada and Arizona.

Republicans achieved this lead despite a poor national environment in the 2022 midterms. Democratic-leaning firm Equis Research estimates that Democrats won Equal share of the Hispanic vote in House races and key Senate and gubernatorial races as Biden did in 2020.

The GOP was disappointed that it did no better despite significant outreach to the Hispanic community. But only maintaining profits was telling.

Polls show Trump is doing better with Hispanics today than he did in 2020. The Cook Political Report’s Demographic Polling Average estimates Kamala Harris leads Trump by about 12 points, an 11-point decline from Biden’s margin.

It’s also telling that Trump’s share of the Hispanic vote hasn’t declined since Harris joined the race. While Harris is polling about 5 points higher than Biden was when he left, Trump’s 41.9% of Latinos is statistically identical to the 41.8% he received upon Biden’s departure.

Even one of the more favorable polls for Harris shows she is slipping among Hispanics. A Recent Pew Research Poll With Hispanics she finds Trump leading 57 to 39 — while Biden was ahead 61 to 36. That’s a 7-point decline in the Democratic margin, not much less than the 11-point decline Cook Politics shows.

It’s not hard to see why Hispanics are becoming dissatisfied with Harris and the Democrats.

Their communities are particularly affected by the massive influx of migrants. Most of the communities from which migrants come are overwhelmingly Hispanic, and certainly a large number of those caught and released settle in Latino neighborhoods, where the people and language are more familiar.

This means that Hispanics bear the brunt of immigrant disruption more than any other ethnic group. The crime that happens happens on their streets. The jobs that immigrants try to get are the same jobs that many Hispanics also hold and covet.

The rocky economy also affects Latinos more than the upper-class whites who set the Biden administration’s policies. Inflation always ravages the poor and the working class first, and Hispanics tend to be poorer and less educated than white Americans.

Unemployment is also increasing among Hispanics 5.5% In the latest jobs report. Stagnant or falling real wages and declining job prospects always hurt the party in power.

This decline among Latinos could be fatal to Harris’s hopes in Nevada and Arizona.

Hispanics cast a little less than 20% of the vote in both states in 2020, and their share of the vote should be slightly higher this year.

If the Democratic margin with Latinos drops 10 points compared to 2020, Trump will easily win Arizona and nearly erase his deficit in Nevada, all else being equal.

The Hispanic vote could also prove decisive in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Latinos turned out between 5% and 7% of the vote in each state, a share that should increase slightly again this year. A 10-point margin shift in Trump’s direction could make the difference in the race expected to be decided by one-tenth of a point.

Harris is largely driven by Hispanic voters’ dislike for the Biden administration.

Only 39% The most recent Economist/YouGov poll approves of Biden’s job performance. The figure dropped to 32% when asked about Biden’s immigration record and only 30% when assessing his record on fighting crime.

So Harris is trying to distance herself from her administration’s record on the border and highlight her past as a prosecutor. Both stances are attempts to portray him in a different light, one that liberal Hispanics unhappy with Biden can accept.

Polls show he has made little progress on the issue, but there are still about five weeks left until Election Day. They still have time to save themselves and remind Hispanics of their traditional Democratic heritage.

A lot depends on this effort. So far, Harris has made notable polling gains only among college-educated white people. If the situation remains the same by the end of October, he may find that his failure to keep key Democratic constituencies in line could put Trump back in the Oval Office.

Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.